- Did we just make a martyr out of Iran’s Supreme Leader?…
- Can Iran outlast us?…
- Have you heard of the “Presidential Bypass”? It’s a legal loophole the rich use to keep their money. And though you might not know it, you can use the same exact loophole to slash your taxes.
Dear reader,
The canines of war slipped their leashes this weekend.
How long will they run at large? And who will corral them?
An initial Israeli airstrike separated Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei’s soul from his body early Saturday.
Several other senior Iranian officials endured a similar detaching in the same event. Experts label it a “decapitation strike.”
Yet the Iranian state retained its head. Shortly after the Israeli/American onslaught commenced, Iran began to counterpunch.
Iranian drones and missiles lit out for several Gulf states. Some were ticketed for United States military installations located therein.
Some penetrated the air defense… and at least three United States military personnel were slain.
Israel too absorbed multiple visitations from Iranian skyraiders.
Iran likewise barred the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic this weekend. Some 20% of Earth’s oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz each day.
Markets Are Panicking
Thus the oil market took fright. Brent crude leapt some 10%. This morning the price hovered over $82 per barrel.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased some 8%, to $72.
Safe haven gold was up and away over $110 this morning to over $5,360.
The stock market, meantime, exhibited jitters and rattles this morning.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was over 200 points in the red. The S&P 500 shed over 20 points… as was the Nasdaq Composite.
Did We Just Create a Martyr?
Yet I return to my initial question: How long will the conflict last?
If the United States and Israel expected the opening decapitation strike would cascade into mass defections and a collapse of Iran’s regime… these hopes came to grief.
As mentioned, Iran soon took to the counterattack.
Iran is even claiming that the Ayatollah Khamenei willingly volunteered for martyrdom.
That is, Iran claims the high cleric did not seek shelter from the expected blow. He instead remained at his residence, aboveground, in full recognition of the hazards.
Shi’a Islam vastly venerates martyrs. And in the official Iranian telling, it has a fresh martyr in the form of Ayatollah Khamenei.
Is it true? Did Iran’s Supreme Leader choose martyrdom? Or was he merely caught unawares by the wily Israelis and their superexcellent surveillance?
I do not know. Yet since when did truth matter in warfare?
The martyrdom slant, myth or no myth, carries far more weight.
And many, many Iranians are clinging to it. They believe it.
Irony
Do you harbor an appreciation for irony? Well friends, here you may find it.
The United States, Israel and others claim that Iran was determined to construct nuclear armaments.
Perhaps it was, perhaps it was not. My spies could provide me no definitive conclusion.
Yet Ayatollah Khamenei issued two fatwas — two religious decrees, that is — prohibiting Iran’s development of nuclear arms.
He claimed they were not compatible with Islam.
I do not know if nuclear arms are compatible with Islam. Pakistan, for example, is a Muslim state. And Pakistan has developed nuclear arms.
It is true, Pakistan is largely Sunni Muslim while Iran is Shi’a Muslim.
I lack the clerical training to appreciate Islam’s subtle doctrinal differences. Yet perhaps they account for it.
And I concede the possibility that the ayatollah’s fatwas against nuclear arms acquisitions were a mere false front to conceal Iran’s nuclear skulduggery.
Yet let the record reflect: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq deployed chemical arms against Iranian forces in their 1980s conflict.
Yet Iran did not retaliate with chemical arms of its own. That is largely because its religious authorities declared them incompatible with Islamic principles.
Islamic law evidently permitted the clearing of minefields by marching youths through them.
Yet I let it pass for now.
Nevertheless, it is possible — it is possible — that the United States and Israel may have dispatched the one Iranian figure who obstructed Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms.
His successor may be far more… accommodating towards them.
Can Iran Simply Outlast Us?
We next center our attention on what military men term the order of battle.
The United States has amassed substantial might within the region, both asea and ashore.
Yet my agents inform me that its forces only possess the armaments to sustain a fairly brief csampaign against the Islamic Republic.
How brief?
Even under moderate intensity, the United States may be Winchester — the military term for ammunition depletion — after a few short weeks.
What if Iran fails to raise the white flag of surrender within those few short weeks?
Iran is rumored to field several thousand missiles of various sorts. Many of them occupy deep underground tunnels… and thus resistant to destructive bombardment.
Thus Iran may be able to sling more arrows than it absorbs.
It Comes Down to Basic Math
Meantime, it is believed that Iran heaved some 1,000 missiles and drones at its foes the first day alone.
I hazard the aerial defenses of the United States and Israel challenged the heaping majority of them.
Yet here a fundamental difficulty presents itself.
Defenders generally shoot two interceptor missiles at each incoming target. The “double tap” enhances a kill’s chances.
At times, defenders turn loose three or four interceptors.
We can therefore conclude that the United States expended as much as 2,000 interceptors the first day alone.
Yet perhaps I stretch the facts. Let us assume a vastly lower figure, perhaps 1,000 launched interceptors.
What will you find?
You will find that the mathematics remain unsustainable. The United States and Israel simply lack the interceptor missiles to sustain the present pace.
Why not simply replace the expended interceptors with fresh supplies?
Here is the answer: Total annual production of Patriot interceptors runs to some 800-850 per year.
Enough, that is, to intercept some 400-425 incoming targets.
Recall, Iran heaved some 1,000 projectiles on the very first day alone.
What of day two? Of day three? Of day 39?
Will Trump Simply Declare Victory?
What if the United States and Israel run dry of ammunition while the Iranian regime remains intact?
Do they merely announce victory and walk away? I hazard President Trump would:
- We killed one of the most evil tyrants in history, the evil Ayatollah Khamenei. We also destroyed the Iranian armed forces. Boy, did we destroy them. We hit them like they’ve never been hit before. We also hammered their nuclear facilities and missile production. No one’s ever seen anything like it, believe me. It’ll take decades for them to recover. Decades! So now it’s time to bring our great armed forces home.
Yet if the purpose is Iranian regime change, it is Iran that will announce victory… and loudly.
For the Iranian regime, survival equals victory. It need merely endure.
And a surviving regime would put out its tongue at the president, razzing him plenty hard before a watching world.
Trump’s Future Could Hang in the Balance
Domestically? It is my sincere belief that Democrats will impeach this president once again… should they emerge victors in this year’s midterm elections.
At present, I hazard they will emerge victors.
They will claim the president wielded the sword of the Republic unconstitutionally and unlawfully.
On this occasion, certain Republicans may well join them.
Yet let us adopt an optimistic frame of mind.
Perhaps Iran will soon sink to its knees under the onslaught… sob “uncle”… and sue for peace on American terms.
I hazard it is possible. And I confess it is the outcome I heartily prefer.
Yet ask yourself this penetrating question:
Is it likely?
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
