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Dear Reader,
The United States government, presently, hauls in some $350 billion of annualized tariff revenue.
$350 billion of annualized tariff revenue is handsome — plenty handsome.
Yet today I argue that the $350 billion tariff windfall represents fool’s gold, a false windfall.
The Kobeissi Letter:
- The US brought in a record $30 billion of tariff revenue in August 2025.
- Meanwhile, the US deficit rose to a colossal $345 billion for the month.
- In other words, the US deficit was 11 times higher than *record* tariff revenue…
- The FY 2025 US deficit will exceed $2 trillion:
- With monthly US deficits now exceeding $300 BILLION, tariff revenue is barely making a 10% dent in the US deficit.
- At the current pace, we could see a $2.7 TRILLION US deficit in 2026.
A $2.7 trillion 2026 budget deficit — even with the formidable tariff bounty!
Fool’s Gold
Imagine the scenario:
‘We have taken in an extra $1 billion in revenues this year,’ gloats the chief executive officer of a corporate concern.
Alas, the same corporation has taken on an additional $2 billion of debt.
Where is the gain? It is set to nothing — the added debt has washed over the added revenue.
Now you have the flavor of it.
Until that wastrel Uncle Samuel runs a heavy blue pencil through the federal budget… the annual deficits… and the nation’s debt… will balloon and balloon.
Will he? Will he run the heavy blue pencil through the federal budget?
The answer, I am pleased to report, is yes.
It will occur the instant Hell transitions from fire to ice.
Eye-Glazing Numbers
Meantime, this year the United States government will misspend some $7 trillion.
The same United States government is projected to misspend $7.2 trillion next year.
Is it any wonder then that the nation groans beneath a $37.5 trillion debt?
Or that its combined debt — both public and private — runs to $104.5 trillion?
It is no wonder whatsoever.
Who’s REALLY to Blame?
We can all indict the fimble-fambling, glad-handing politician with the tongue of silver, it is true.
It is easy to argue this rascal has sunk the nation so hopelessly in debt.
Yet as I have argued before: If we haul the politician into the dock… We the People must go with him.
That is because the politician is simply We the People’s “servant.”
We demand a shining military machine with every bell and whistle… heaping doses of Social Security… Medicare… a Rolls-Royce education… a million gaudy baubles.
Yet we prefer to finance them with credit. That is, with debt.
Give Me, Just Don’t Tax Me
With the displeasure of repeating myself:
“Hand it over,” we bark from one corner of our mouths. “But don’t dare raise my taxes,” we bellow from the other.
- We claim we are heart and soul for limited government. Yet are we simply heart and soul for ourselves?
“Give me that tax break,” says the one. “No, give it to me,” says the other.
- You can both go scratching, says the third. I deserve it more.
- A fourth files a claim of his own.
- Meantime, the hard-luck farmer wants his back scratched. The hard-pressed businessman wants his belly rubbed. The hard-worked teacher wants her apple.
- Millions more are hard at the business.
- It is the triumph of “special interests” when the other fellow’s parsnips are buttered. Yet it is “democracy in action” when our own parsnips are buttered.
- I do not judge.
- I myself am in possession of parsnips. I am all for their buttering — and a good buttering.
Two Options
Could politicians humbug us into a $37.5 trillion debt absent our knowledge — or our consent?
Were the American people humbugged into so much debt?
Two possibilities, I submit, suggest themselves:
1) The elected officials of the United States government are nothing less than a fiscal pirate’s crew.
A fiscal pirate’s crew?
They have amassed today’s $37.5 trillion debt in full defiance of the thrifty American voter.
Or:
2) Today’s $37.5 trillion debt reflects faithfully the desires of the American voter. He has gotten value for money. He accepts the monstrous debt in exchange for the benefits it showers upon him.
Every Nation Gets the Government It Deserves
Option 1 — as I have argued before — mocks our cherished democratic theories.
Yet option 2 stands in full indictment of those cherished democratic theories.
I have put them out before.
And today I reiterate the comments of 18th-century French philosopher Joseph de Maistre. :
“Every nation gets the government it deserves.”
I hope the Frenchman was false, for the sake of present Americans.
Yet I fear the Frenchman was true.
Are Americans prepared?
Regards,
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
