- Now what?…
- “May you live in interesting times”…
- Robert Kiyosaki’s latest book shows you the compounding power of weekly income…
Dear Reader,
Last Thursday the president pledged to determine his Iranian policy “within the next two weeks.”
On Friday I wrote:
- Note the president’s phrasing — “within the next two weeks.”
- This very day falls within the two-week stretch. As does the next day and the day following that one… clear through to day 14.
- What if the president decides tomorrow? And what if that decision is to shoot?
The president decided tomorrow. And the decision was to shoot.
Three Iranian nuclear facilities fell under American bombardment on Saturday.
The deeply emplaced site at Fordow was among them.
B-2 Spirit bombers of the United States Air Force released multiple 15-ton “bunker busters” upon the mountain-encased installation.
The president announced Saturday evening that the site was “obliterated.”
Was it — obliterated, that is? I do not know.
Only time will reveal the actual results.
Now What?
Here is the question on all lips: How will Iran respond?
I do not believe Iran will select the direct option. That is, I do not believe Iran will hurl lethal projectiles at United States forces within the region.
It would merely invite a substantial American counterblow — and well are the Iranians aware that the American president would deliver it.
I believe instead Iran will select the indirect option.
It can instigate mischief through its multiple puppets, referred to generally as “proxies.”
Yet many of these proxies have endured severe roughhousing recently.
Here I refer to such entities as Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen’s Houthis.
They may lack the requisite oomph to effect the mischief.
Thus Iran may select the economic option.
Iran’s Parliament Votes to Close the Strait of Hormuz
Yesterday Iran’s parliament approved a measure to bottle the Strait of Hormuz.
Much of the world — including China — requires Middle East oil to function.
And Iran could choke the supply.
The global oil price would soon be up and away. Economies would be in siege.
Yet Iran’s parliament has not the final say-so.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has the final say-so.
And Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has yet to mandate the closure.
Yet I am far from convinced Iran’s Supreme National Security Council will issue the order.
That is because it would turn much of the world against Iran — and starve Iran of petrochemical revenues.
Economic Suicide
The United States boasts an official gross domestic product of perhaps $28 trillion.
I believe its true gross domestic is substantially lesser… but I let it pass.
What is Iran’s gross domestic product?
The answer is perhaps $404 billion — some 70 times lower than the United States.
Walmart’s annual revenue exceeds it… as does Amazon’s.
Can Iran afford grievous economic deprivation?
Yet we must consider the possibility that besieged nations do not always act from rational assessment.
As the threatened and cornered animal, they may respond from the instinctual and hormonal level… and respond from these levels
Thus Iran’s leaders find themselves wedged within a fine pickle jar.
They likely believe they must retaliate for the American punch. Yet the nation would likely suffer greater from retaliation than inaction.
How might Iran respond then?
An Iranian Manhattan Project?
I hazard Iran may respond by rushing to construct a nuclear device.
Would Israel have battened upon Iran’s head if Iran held out a nuclear deterrent?
I do not believe it would have. Iran would have shown Israel its nuclear fangs.
Renegade “axis of evil” member North Korea got its hands on nuclear weaponry years ago.
Has anyone since threatened the Hermit Kingdom with “regime change” and the rest of it?
No one has, no.
I hazard Iran has taken aboard the lesson.
It is highly unlikely that Iran deployed its entire nuclear apparatus in locations vulnerable to Israeli and American bombardment.
My spies inform me that Iran is likely in possession of adequate fissile nuclear material to assemble at least one explosive device.
It may embark upon a sort of accelerated Manhattan Project to attain full capability.
Wild Cards
Would Israel and its American accomplice detect Iran’s Manhattan Project in time — and terminate it rudely?
Perhaps. Yet perhaps not.
I suspect Iran is laboring furiously to enhance its internal security.
Thus the tricks that the Israeli intelligence services employed this time to fish up nuclear activity… may not function next time.
I am informed that Iranian security services have already collared multiple Israeli operatives.
Of course I speculate. I do not know the fashion in which Iran responds… where it responds… or if it responds.
Yet let us assume, for the moment, that Iran pursues the Manhattan Project option.
What would be its effects?
Renowned international relations theorist John Mearsheimer believes the answer is regional stability:
- I think there’s no question that a nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to the region, because nuclear weapons are weapons of peace. They have hardly any offensive capability at all.
Yet this fellow does acknowledge that “there is always some small possibility that there will be nuclear use.”
Nuclear Hair-Trigger
Here is one danger:
Iran is presently shooting conventionally-armed missiles into Israel. These represent nuisances, yet not menaces.
Should Iran acquire nuclear explosives… and load them onto missiles… the dynamic transitions instantly.
Israel would not know if incoming Iranian missiles harbored a conventional or nuclear payload.
Thus it would be compelled to conclude the payloads were nuclear — it cannot afford to wait until impact offers the answer.
Should it wager wrongly upon the conventional option, the tiny nation would absorb a devastating, if not fatal, nuclear blow.
And so Israel would be compelled to lob its own nuclear missiles into Iran upon detection of the incoming threat.
“Use it or lose it,” as the phrase runs.
Missile flight duration from Iran to Israel, and vice versa, is perhaps 10-12 minutes.
Thus a nuclear-wielding Iran places the region upon perpetual hair-trigger.
“May you live in interesting times,” runs an old Chinese expression.
It is not a benediction. It is a curse.
By all accounts, we live in interesting times.
After Saturday, our times have likely turned more interesting yet.
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
