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Dear Reader,
Is it over?
Yesterday the Islamic Republic of Iran heaved missilery at United States military installations in the region.
Very few projectives penetrated the aerial barrier. Those that slipped through landed juicelessly and harmlessly.
Not one mere casualty was reported.
To all outward appearance the “attacks” were… performative… as a professional wrestling bout is performative.
They were intended not to draw blood — but attention.
We Showed You! Now Let’s Shake
“We have struck back at the Great Satan,” Iran’s leaders could gloat. “We have taken revenge for their illegal and dastardly attack upon us, praise be to Allah!”
Yet Iran telegraphed the false fireworks far in advance. United States officials claimed to have been handed “good advance warning.”
Here was the Iranian message, stripped to barest essentials:
- Look, we have to retaliate in some way in order to save face. We’ll look weak if we do nothing. But don’t worry, we don’t intend to cause you any harm. So here’s the plan: We’re going to launch x number of obsolete missiles in the general direction of your base at such and such a time.
- Evacuate your people and get your defenses ready. We’ll beat our chests about how we smashed you, but that’s just for internal consumption. We’re willing to end all this if you are.
Trump Says We’re Even
The United States — for its part — apparently clasped Iran’s extended hand of truce.
Stated President Trump yesterday:
- Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction.
- I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done…
- I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured…
From Bombing to Peace in Two Days?
Then the president took to Truth Social last evening… and announced the following:
- CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!
- Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.
- On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will!
What Did It Accomplish?
It is exceedingly difficult to keep pace with events. And what I write one minute may be in the hellbox by the next.
Yet as I write the CEASEFIRE evidently remains in effect.
How the CEASEFIRE was attained I do not know.
I do not know which arms were twisted, which backs were scratched or which palms were greased.
Yet I am not certain it will hold. It is shot through with fragility.
Assume — however — that it does hold. What did the 12 DAY WAR accomplish?
Israel will not have attained regime change. It has delivered Iran a blow, it is true.
Yet Iran will repair the damages and make its losses good. It will also, I imagine, patch the gaping holes within its internal security apparatus through which Israel drove trucks.
Meantime, we were told Israel initiated the warfare because Iran verged upon the thinnest cusp of nuclear capability.
Did the 12 DAY WAR reduce that capability to nonexistence?
I am far from convinced that it did. It likely hobbled it and delayed the capability. Yet it did not — in all likelihood — end it.
Thus I hazard the CEASEFIRE represents a mere postponement of warfare.
The Case of the Missing Uranium
Meantime, I understand some 400 kilograms of Iran’s moderately enriched uranium — roughly 880 lbs. — runs at large.
No one can locate it.
Iran has evidently enriched the vanished radioactive material to 60%.
Itl must undergo enrichment to 90% to attain weapons-grade might.
My scientific advisors inform me that the distance between 60% enrichment and 90% enrichment of 880 uranium lbs. is roughly one month of enriching.
Thus if Iran retains an adequate inventory of enrichers, it may be but one month from producing weapons-grade uranium — should it choose to proceed with enrichment.
Will it? Can it?
I do not know. Yet I do know that the intelligence services of the United States and Israel are on the hunt.
And that the CEASEFIRE will terminate should they catch its scent.
They’ll Just Give Iran Nukes
Meantime, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev truly flustered the fish yesterday.
The “hardliner” claimed that multiple nuclear states are “ready to directly supply” Iran with nuclear weaponry.
He did not specify which nuclear states.
Emerging from consultation with my spies, I believe the fellow refers to Pakistan and North Korea.
My men even informed me that North Korea has requested permission from Russia and China to hand Iran atomic devices.
They further informed me that both Russia and China refused the request — with fierce and resolute adamance.
Neither nuclear power seeks the broader proliferation that a nuclear-armed Iran may set in train.
Let’s Hope the Final Chapter Is Boring
I am aware of war’s vast appeal to the hormonal glands.
I know readers are hot to read about it. Yet I grow weary from writing about it.
I am eager to proceed to more fascinating scenes of human conflict — the stock market for example.
Thus I hope the CEASEFIRE holds. Yet again, I am not confident it will.
I hazard the concluding chapter of this saga has yet to be written.
I pray that chapter proves dull, dull reading once it goes to press.
Certain tales should end with yawns… not gasps.
This tale — the Iranian nuclear tale — ranks first among them.
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
