Dear Reader,
“Hey Trump, you want peace in Ukraine? Haha, good luck with that. We’re throwing you this hot potato.”
That is the outgoing Biden administration’s message for the incoming Trump administration.
Four days ago the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to assault Mother Russia with American-made missilery.
The same Biden administration previously refused to flash the green light. They said it would represent a “dangerous escalation” with Russia.
Yet now the lame ducks — on their way out the door — have rotated 180 degrees.
They have flashed the green light. Yesterday Ukraine acknowledged the signal.
It heaved six American-made ATACMS missiles against a weapons arsenal in the Russian city of Bryansk.
The Russians swatted away five of them. Yet one, by most accounts, struck bullseye.
Thus the United States has jumped across a Russian “red line.”
Mr. Putin has bellowed previously that he would consider any such assault not merely a Ukrainian assault — but an assault by the nation that handed Ukraine the projectiles.
The U.S. Did Everything But Pull the Trigger
Understand: The United States did not merely hand Ukraine the pistol… and authorize Ukraine to shoot it off as it pleases.
Ukraine itself cannot fire the gun because it lacks the means to do it. It requires an American gunman.
How did Ukraine acquire the Russian weapon arsenal’s precise coordinates? American reconnaissance gadgetry pinpointed the site.
Who loaded those precise coordinates into the ATACMS missiles? The answer is technicians of the United States armed forces — Ukraine is forbidden direct access to the things.
Only then did the United States hand Ukraine the lethal instruments.
I said the business requires an American gunman. Perhaps I misstate the facts. Ukraine depresses the launch button itself. It is the actual gunman.
Yet the United States loaded the pistol, handed it to Ukraine, and showed it where to aim it.
That is, the United States did all but yank the trigger. And well does Mr. Putin know it.
Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine
In response, Russia has refreshed its nuclear doctrine. Reports CNN:
- President Vladimir Putin has updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, two days after his US counterpart Joe Biden granted Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with American-made weapons.
- Under the updated doctrine, Moscow will consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia…
- In a phone call with reporters, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted the changes mean that “the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it…
What Red Lines?
“But Maher,” you say, “we’ve already crossed so many of Putin’s “red lines” and he’s never done a thing. Sending Ukraine HIMARS rocket artillery was a red line, sending tanks was a red line, sending Ukraine F-16s was a red line. We sent them anyway and Putin did nothing. Why will he do anything now?”
Just so. But former CIA advisor Jim Rickards says have another guess:
- NATO’s arming and equipping of Ukraine was never a red line for Russia. Western observers simply assumed that providing HIMARS, ATACMSs and tanks would be red lines for Russia. But Russia never specifically said they were. They warned about the overall threat of escalation, but these weren’t specific red lines.
- But direct attacks on Russian soil are a different matter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin himself have issued specific warnings about NATO facilitation of attacks within Russia itself. That’s the difference.
Mr. Rickards is correct. Here is the Russian devil himself, Putin:
- Flight assignments for these missile systems can, in fact, only be entered by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian military personnel cannot do this… It will mean direct participation of NATO.
- We are not talking about allowing or not allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons. We are talking about deciding whether NATO countries are directly involved in the military conflict or not.
- This will mean that NATO countries, the U.S. and European countries are at war with Russia. If this is so, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us.
Thus the dour Russian has sketched his red line. The United States has nonetheless laughed if off — and marched across it.
How Will Putin Retaliate?
What will Mr. Putin do now?
If he sits upon his hands and does nothing, a great amount of egg will appear upon his face.
I hazard the fellow does not relish egg upon his face. He must respond.
Jim Rickards:
- Putin doesn’t bluff. When he says he will do something, he does. When he says he will react to some Western act, the reaction takes place.
Yet is he willing to risk direct conflict with the United States? In all likelihood he is not. He is simply too shrewd.
Yet other… options… remain in his quiver.
He may undertake not direct retaliation — but indirect retaliation.
He may, for example, hand advanced missilery to allies hostile to the United States.
To Iran and North Korea to name two.
And if, say, Iran hands missiles off to Yemen’s Houthi rebels… who presently menace Red Sea shipping… and the pivotal Suez Canal?
If they shoot these missiles off at vessels of the United States Navy?
And if they wreck one or two of them — perhaps even an aircraft carrier?
“Tough darts,” says Mr. Putin, “but don’t look at me. I didn’t do it. Besides, you asked for it. I told you not to help Ukraine attack Russian territory. You did it anyway. You reap what you sow.”
Love Is Like War
Would the United States concede the point… and walk away… honors even?
It is not likely. It is — I dare say — inconceivable.
Washington’s war drummers would label it Pearl Harbor part two, rip the swords from their scabbards and proceed against Mr. Putin’s men.
Mr. Putin would of course respond to the response. Up the escalation ladder both sides would go.
All this because of a sinister ploy to hobble and hamstring the incoming President Trump.
These rascals seek to rope him down in Ukraine and keep the war gods satiated with blood. Ukrainian blood, Russian blood — anyone’s blood but their own.
And if he refuses the bait, they will declare him an enemy of freedom and a Putin puppet:
“We attempted to help poor little Ukraine punch the Russian bully in the nose. But Trump sides with the Russian bully. See? We told you so. He hates democracy and loves dictatorship.”
In the spirit of clemency I might say forgive them father for they know not what they do.
Yet they know precisely what they do.
And the crimson will continue spilling by the gallon, by the tub, by the vat.
“Love is like war,” said the late, great Henry Louis Mencken — “easy to begin but very hard to stop.”
President Trump will soon realize it.
Regards,
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
P.S. It happened in 2000… it happened in 2008… it happened in 2021… and now…
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