Last night and for the next few days, you will see a lot of the same content about Biden and Trump’s first debate of 2024.
Many takes will be accurate, many will be absurd, and most will be in the same spectrum of coverage.
- This was a big moment…
- Biden was…
- Trump should have…
- The moderators were…
- Body language told us…
All of that is entertaining and, in some cases, useful. However, we are not going to discuss any of that here.
I want you to walk away from reading this piece with a better understanding of how the current is moving beneath the surface. So, we will take a different approach.
First, we need to assess the situation as neutrally as possible. Let’s start by looking at some opne reactions.
Frank Luntz – someone I have certain issues with but who does run solid research in some ways – tweeted:
- “My focus group of undecided voters wants Joe Biden to step aside. They like him and respect him – most voted for him in 2020. But they want him to go. Tonight was a political earthquake.”
Private focus groups reflect that sentiment.
Tim Naftali, a senior researcher at Columbia and CNN, tweeted;
- “In this debate, so far, Trump doesn’t seem to have aged appreciably in 4 years. He is more focused than he has been in recent rallies.”
And Brian Stelter, a former CNN anchor, re-tweeted it.
Chris Wallace, yes THAT Chris Wallace, speaking about Biden, stated that:
- “This has been, quite frankly, a car accident in slow motion… He sunk his campaign.”
These people do not like Trump. For them to go on record like that tells you a lot.
Digging past the pundit-talking layer, we get to the walking-the-walk zone of betting odds—where people put their money where their mouth is.
The numbers changed radically in real time.
It’s almost like a seismic chart to match Frank’s “earthquake” bite.
This makes the night’s result a single word: “coherence.” Merriam-Webster’s entry 1. b. specifically. Which defines it as the “integration of diverse elements, relationships, or values.”
Various parts of the night came together to point to one core idea: the emperor has no clothes.
Second is the question of now what. That answer is much more difficult to pin down.
A few weeks ago, there was a common conception that Biden couldn’t be replaced and that he was the candidate no matter what. That was false from the get-go. Both parties have had conventions for over 150 years and have plenty of smart people planning things. Life happens. Even a young candidate could be removed from contender status. There are contingencies.
However, now, there is an open movement calling for Biden to be replaced.
More importantly, many of the party’s heavy hitters are starting to ask for it. In fact, a lot of heat has started to fall on the staff around Joe. Remember, a presidency isn’t just one person but an entire apparatus.
Just like any good bureaucracy.
Now that the MainStreamMedia veneer has been removed, many of the players in that admin are starting to get pummeled with the “why didn’t you tell us how bad it was?”
This matters because they know their time with Joe is finite, and they will need to do something to keep their high-profile positions.
Of course, just like any good bureaucrat, they will do practically anything to make that happen.
I’m reminded of a scene from Full Metal Jacket…
So, now we wait and watch. The scurrying and backroom meetings have already started.
At all levels.
Eventually, we’ll get an idea of what the next move is.
And I doubt we’ll have to wait – – – “long time.”
C.K. Crystal, Freedom Financial News Team
