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Dear Reader,
The memorandum of understanding remains a memorandum of mystery. Reports The Hill:
- The political world is aflame with debate about a document virtually nobody has seen…
- A huge vacuum has been left by the failure, so far, to publish the MOU. Into that gap, American and Iranian officials have sought to push vastly different interpretations of the deal…
- One of the few things to be widely accepted is that the MOU kicks the can down the road on some of the most vexing issues.
Foremost among these most “vexing” issues is Iran’s atomic ambitions.
Economic sanctions against Iran and the disposition of Iranian assets — presently under international custodianship — likewise remain vexatious.
To this vexing list we must add Israel’s conduct concerning Lebanon and Iran’s Hezbollah ally.
Flying Blind
Concludes The Hill, fretfully:
- Tensions and disagreements over every topic will flare for at least as long as no text of the MOU is publicly available — and probably longer.
- (Vice President) Vance said Monday that he expected text to be released this week.
- Until then, everyone is flying blind — and the claims, counterclaims and accusations are flying too.
I hazard The Hill is correct.
We will likely encounter them all — the claims, counterclaims and accusations.
Why do the details remain dark? Why haven’t they been exposed to the public gaze?
Perhaps kinks remain in the hosing… and the reconciling parties expect to unkink these kinks by Friday’s scheduled signing in Geneva, Switzerland.
Iran’s 14 Points
Here are Iran’s 14 points which it claimed must undergird any memorandum of understanding with the United States:
1): Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
2): The US’s “commitment to non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs” and respect for its sovereignty.
3): Lifting of US naval blockade within 30 days.
4): Withdrawal of US forces from around Iran.
5): Reopening the strait of Hormuz within 30 days “with Iranian arrangements”.
6): Suspension of US sanctions on Iranian oil.
7): US and allies to draw up reconstruction plans for Iran “worth at least $300bn”.
8): Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement “based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of” sanctions.
9): Reiterating Iran’s commitment not to produce nuclear weapons.
10): During the negotiations, the US will not increase its forces in the region or impose new sanctions.
11): Release $24bn in blocked Iranian funds.
12): Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.
13): Final agreement to be approved by a UN security council resolution.
14): The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. “Discussions about Iran’s missile programme and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda.”
How to Tell Which Side Won
If President Trump has conceded the majority of these terms we can only conclude that Iran has “won.”
It would indicate that was so hot for a resolution he was willing to buckle.
After all, they are very, very strong insistences.
Incidentally: My spies inform me that senior Iranian officials have huddled with Russian and Chinese officials over the memorandum of understanding.
Thus you can be confident that Iran’s demands are at least partially Russian and Chinese demands.
If the memorandum of understanding omits much of these stipulations, we can conclude that Iran has not won.
It would constitute an effective cry of uncle.
For his part, President Trump has denied that he has yielded to Iran’s 14 points. Any indication to the contrary represents “fake news.”
He has argued that Iran’s 14 points “have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.”
We will have our answers once the memorandum of understanding has been published.
Happy Days Are Back… for Now
Yet I do not believe any truce will endure. What we are witnessing is a mere kicking of tin cans down the roadway.
Wall Street believes — or prefers to believe — otherwise. Just yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average established a fresh record.
Meantime, the stock price of Mr. Musk’s SpaceX has leapt some 63% since its Friday Initial Public Offering.
SpaceX is presently worth some $2.9 trillion, a mere $100 billion from overtaking Microsoft.
Happy days, it appears, are back.
For how long? I do not know of course.
Yet if Wall Street believes the Persian Gulf will soon become a permanent scene of peace, I suggest that it have another guess.
It has likely fallen for the false seductions of iron pyrite — fool’s gold.
Regards,
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
