- Trump goes to China…
- Trump doesn’t have many good options…
- Once SpaceX hits the S&P 500, the buying frenzy begins. Don’t wait! Grab a stake before that happens. Click here to see how.
Dear reader,
The American president, Trump, arrived in China yesterday.
I hazard the Iran conflict has consumed his discussions with China’s Chairman Xi.
China is Iran’s ally. Iran presently maintains dominion over the Hormuz Strait, with the elevated oil price that follows.
China — for reasons that are various — has proven reluctant to intervene.
To resolve the present Hormuz impasse, President Trump has “encouraged” China to bring Iran to heel.
Trump Wants China to Step Up
Here I paraphrase — inaccurately, perhaps — the communications between them:
“You get much of your oil from the Persian Gulf. It’s strongly in your interest to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened. You’re friends with these lunatics. They’ll listen to you,” he will continue.
And it is true. A fully reopened Hormuz Strait is in China’s interest. Yet Persian Gulf oil is still Meandering its way through to Chinese ports, despite the United States naval blockade of Iran.
Increased importation of Russian oil is likewise keeping China’s tanks full.
Meantime, China commands the world’s most abundant oil reserve — estimated at some 1.4 billion barrels.
This oily war chest can likely sustain China for months.
It is far less likely that the president can maintain his blockade for months… or resume a wasteful aerial campaign that may have largely failed.
Time Isn’t on Trump’s Side
Reports the outfit Global Geopolitics:
- Iran retains approximately seventy-five percent of its prewar missile launchers and inventory, despite weeks of intense American and Israeli bombardment. The Iranian regime has recovered and reopened almost all of its underground storage facilities. It can survive the American naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, a timeline that far exceeds the political patience of any American administration.
And so Chairman Xi is far less desperate to open Hormuz… and resolve the conflict… than President Trump.
Thus Chairman Xi maintains the whip hand, as it were, over his American visitor.
And I hazard he intends to employ it with every opportunity.
Xi Could Drive a Hard Bargain
“You want my help, Mr. President? Very well, I’m willing to talk to my Iranian friends for you. I’ll see if I can get them to come around. But first, I’d like you to reconsider some of your positions concerning my country.”
“Positions? What positions?,” queries President Trump.
“Well, Mr. President, for starters, I strongly suggest that you reconsider your impassioned support of Taiwan. I find it highly inconvenient to Chinese interests. There’s no reason for our two nations to quarrel over what amounts to a family dispute between us Chinese.”
“And that $14 billion arms package to Taiwan that your Congress has approved? Under your system, you don’t have to approve it, you know. I’d be much more inclined to talk to the Iranians if you didn’t approve it.”
“And while we’re talking, Mr. President, some of the tariffs you’ve imposed on Chinese goods are just a little too high for my liking. Why don’t you lower them to a level I feel more comfortable with? You see where I’m coming from, don’t you?”
“Oh, one final point, Mr. President, if you’ll be so gracious as to allow me. Your government has placed sanctions against certain Chinese companies that are conducting business with Iran. I really wish that you would consider lifting those sanctions. I know how much you need all those rare earth minerals my country sells you. I wouldn’t want to see those sales jeopardized over these sanctions, as I’m sure you don’t want to see them jeopardized either. You understand.”
A Corner Plenty Tight
Thus the subtle yet muscular arts of Chinese diplomacy may come bearing upon the president.
I hazard they will leave a fantastic impression upon him. That is because he has backed himself into a corner plenty tight. And he hopes above all hope to squirrel his way out of it.
Above all, he realizes he cannot simply walk away without substantial Iranian concessions. Else, he concedes defeat.
That, he will not accept.
Yet he cannot recommence major combat operations against Iran, lest Iran strike out against the region’s vast energy infrastructure… resulting in even greater disruptions to global markets and spiraling prices.
Mr. Robert Kagan is a “neoconservative” of considerable renown. Iranian regime change is a long-standing hobby horse he has ridden.
Yet he is also a fierce foe of President Trump. Thus he denounces the president’s conduct of this conflict. He argues that:
- It has increased Russia’s income (selling oil at a higher price). It turned Iran into a Superpower, now in control of the most important waterway in the world. It increased the importance of the Chinese yuan and of China’s influence on world affairs. It left Iran with its enriched uranium, and more incentive than ever to make a nuclear bomb. It did not change the Iranian regime.
A High Stakes Game
To date — to date — this Kagan fellow is largely correct, in my estimation.
Yet circumstances, and war’s fortunes, may of course swing in the president’s direction.
I concede the possibility.
And as an American patriot through whose veins course the reddest blood… I hope, sincerely, that the conflict resolves on American terms.
Meantime, the president is aware, keenly, of the calendar. Well does he know the midterm elections are mere months distant.
And absent a timely resolution, he knows his party is likely sunk — along with the remainder of his presidency.
I wish you luck in China, Mr. President. Events suggest you will require every last ounce of it.
Regards,
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
