- Real GDP growth cut in half…
- The most important number in the world?…
- Gold Breakout Alert Everything is lining up perfectly for a historic gold bull run… one that could send gold soaring past $10,000 in 2026. One gold research firm says they’ve found the best way to get in for less than $50.
Dear reader,
My fathomless disbelief in government statisticians finds renewed vindication. The Chronicle Journal:
- On March 13, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released a sobering revision for the final quarter of 2025, slashing Real GDP growth to an annualized rate of just 0.7%.
- This figure, down from an initial estimate of 1.4%, marks the weakest performance for the American economy since the early pandemic recovery and signals a significant loss of momentum entering the new year.
1.4% expansion… revised to 0.7% expansion… a veritable halving.
As I have wondered before:
Why does the United States government employ so many Wrong Way Charlies — at considerable taxpayer expense — who cannot approximate reality at the price of their souls?
Why employ them at all? Their primary work is botchwork.
Where’s Their Amour Propre?
Would you trust the weatherman who had forecast a roasting 100 degrees… when the next day’s temperature came in at 48?
Would you trust the stockjobber who told you Stock X would scale $100 the next day when Stock X plunges to $48?
Why then should you trust government statisticians who declare quarterly growth of 1.4% — when the true figure came in at 0.7%?
Where is their amour propre, their self-respect as a professional body?
Decent men might scurry off with their chins upon their chests, gushing apologies and pledging to flee the forecasting business forevermore.
Yet these same men will return next quarter with another number-plucking. Most likely, with an identical accuracy.
As they will the succeeding quarter and the quarter following that one, world without end.
Stats vs. Numbers
The quarterly growth rate is but a statistic. And of course, famously, statistics are the damndest of all damnable lies.
Imagine a nation divided equally between 11-foot giants and 3-foot dwarfs.
Does the average citizen stand 7 feet in height?
Half the population is black, half the population is white. Is the average citizen… gray?
Half are male, half are female. Is the average citizen hermaphroditic?
So much, then, for statistics. Would you like some numbers?
Here is one: $308 billion.
That is February’s federal budget deficit — a 225% increase over January’s budget deficit. 225%!
Here is another number: $1 trillion.
There you have the federal budget deficit through the first five months of fiscal year 2026 — the third-largest five-month annual opening ever recorded.
More Numbers
Another number yet: $1.8 million.
That is the amount the United States government ladles out each minute to service interest on the nation’s debt.
And another: 49%.
That is the percentage of Americans… according to a Redfin survey… who report difficulty meeting their rent or mortgage payments.
And other: 3.3%.
That is the going United States hiring rate. It comes in at the second-lowest level since its 2020 valley. It likewise resembles the hiring rate observed in the grinding teeth of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
Lastly, the number 8,112,000.
That is the number of rocks scientifically determined to occupy the combined skulls of Congress — encompassing 435 representatives and 100 senators.
Stagflation Is in the Air
Yet let us return to the downwardly revised Q4 2025 report. Once again, The Chronicle Journal:
- Beyond the halls of Congress, American consumers — the traditional engine of the U.S. economy — began to pull back significantly. Personal consumption growth was revised downward to 2%, a sharp decline from the 3.5% clip seen in the third quarter of 2025.
- This retrenchment reflects a growing “cost-of-living anxiety” as households grapple with high interest rates and the cumulative effect of years of elevated prices. Furthermore, trade headwinds worsened as exports fell by 3.3% annually, exacerbated by escalating trade tensions and a cooling global appetite for American goods.
Thus whispers of the dreaded “S-word” begin to circulate in worrying profusion:
- With growth stalling and core inflation gauges remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the specter of “stagflation” — a toxic mix of stagnant growth and high inflation — is no longer a theoretical risk but a present reality.
- Investors are now recalibrating their expectations for interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve finds itself caught between the need to stimulate a slowing economy and the mandate to suppress rising costs fueled by a recent global energy shock.
The Most Important Number in the World?
Since we have centered our attention on numbers today, let us conclude with an additional number:
$23,000.
That is Freedom Financial News contributor Jim Rickards’ forecasted long-term gold price.
There may be no more critical number in all the world.
As Mr. Rickards is fond to ask of investors…
“Got gold?”
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
