- Jamie Dimon thinks gold could reach $10,000…
- Why gold could reach $15,000 or higher…
- Gold’s smashing records right now. But DON’T buy physical gold right now. Click here to discover a much more powerful strategy to collect an extra $12,000 to $15,000… or even $52,000 a year from gold… without buying actual gold.
Dear Reader,
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon is not a gold enthusiast.
And in recent months he has proposed that gold is encased within a frothy sphere prone to popping.
Yet this week Mr. Dimon conceded, reluctantly, grudgingly, that gold:
- Could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio.
Thus the gold purchaser has transitioned from irrational to semi-rational in Mr. Dimon’s telling.
Will he next attain rational status? I do not know.
Yet can gold scale $10,000 heights — or heights even dizzier?
The Newest Case for Gold
Freedom Financial News contributor Jim Rickards is a foremost gold authority. He has, in fact, authored a crackerjack work on the metal, The New Case for Gold.
He believes the answer is yes — gold can scale $10,000 heights — and higher.
Yet his belief is anchored not in airy speculation but in hard history.
He does not gaze into crystal, study bird entrails or consult the astrological charts.
Robust mathematics forms the rock of his case.
Mr. Rickards observes that gold has undergone two bull markets.
The initial bull market stretched from August 1971-January 1980.
Gold vaulted an intergalactic 2,200% in those 9.4 years.
Gold’s second bull run ran from August 1999-August 2011 — precisely 12 years.
The metal posted a superexcellent 670% gain across those dozen years. And:
“If we take a simple average of the price gains and durations of the two prior bull markets in gold,” explains Mr. Rickards… “we arrive at a 1,435% gain over a period of 10.7 years.”
Gold’s Third Bull Market
Gold’s third bull market commenced in December 2015, when it commenced its ascent from $1,050 the ounce.
Today — nearly ten years in — gold scales $4,200 the ounce.
And so the gold price has advanced 300% in under ten years.
Thus bull market no.3 fantastically lags bull market no.1 percentagewise (2,200%)… and significantly lags bull market no.2 percentagewise (670%).
Should gold attain the 1,435%-gain average of its prior bull markets, it has miles and miles to run.
Precisely how many miles? Some 10,870 miles!:
- Applying that gain and duration to a baseline of $1,050 per ounce beginning in December 2015 leads to a gains projection for this bull market of $15,070 per ounce by August 2026.
It is true, August 2026 is but ten months distant. Barring a mania truly manic, it is gold will not likely sprint $10,870 within that space.
Yet what if gold’s third bull market exceeds the 10.7-year average?
$15,070 gold drifts into highly plausible view.
Why $15,000 Gold Isn’t Far-Fetched
Still you scoff at $15,070 gold. Perhaps on some distant tomorrow, you argue — yet not within a reasonable horizon.
I do not fault you one whit.
Yet as Mr. Rickards notes, the mathematics is behind it:
- A bit of elementary math is helpful in understanding how the dollar price of gold can move to $15,000 per ounce… For this purpose, we’ll assume a baseline price of $2,000 per ounce…
- A move from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce is a heavy lift. That’s a 50% increase and could easily take a year or more. Beyond that, a further increase from $3,000 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce is a 33% increase, another large rally.
- A further gain from $4,000 per ounce to $5,000 per ounce is a further gain of 25%.
- But notice the pattern. Each gain is $1,000 per ounce, but the percentage increase drops from 50% to 33% to 25%.
- That’s because the starting point is higher while the $1,000 gain is constant. Each $1,000 jump represents a smaller (and easier) percentage gain than the one before.
It’s Like Compounding Interest
You may liken the business to the phenomenon of compounding interest.
A 10% return on $100 will yield you $10. A 10% return on $1,000,000 will yield you $100,000.
The percentage is identical. The return is not.
Thus the transition from $2,000 gold to $3,000 gold — percentagewise — equals the transition from $10,000 gold to $15,000 gold.
More:
- This pattern continues… Moving from $14,000 per ounce to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% gain. Gold can move 1% in a single trading day, sometimes 2% or more.
- At progressively higher prices, we see the same $1,000 gain, but the percentage increase is smaller, and the hurdle is therefore lower… Those $1,000 per ounce pops keep getting easier.
No Guarantees, BUT…
Thus $15,000 gold is attainable — should gold’s third bull market extend its rampage.
Will it? I do not know. Nor does Mr. Rickards, as he concedes freely and openly:
- There’s nothing deterministic about this model. Actual gains could run ahead of this projection both in time and by amount. Conversely, the bull market could end at any time for a wide variety of reasons…
- But this forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
If these tools and models have proved accurate in many other contexts… they must differ vastly from the tools and models of the Federal Reserve.
That is because its tools and models yield little but botchwork.
They can be no more trusted than a man can trust a dog with his dinner.
If the Federal Reserve’s tools and models forecasted $15,000 gold, I would dismiss it at a glance.
Yet the Federal Reserve’s tools and models do not forecast $15,000 gold.
For that precise reason I incline to believe it.
Regards,
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
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