- How much the war is costing you…
- Hope is not a strategy…
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Dear reader,
How much money has increased gasoline prices depleted Americans of their wealth?
Reports The Kobeissi Letter:
American drivers have paid an additional $8.6 billion in fuel costs since the Iran War began on February 28th.
In other words, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the war began.
The average cost of gas in the US is now up to $4.10 per gallon, the highest since June 2022.
How do you like it? And what does it portend for the inflation rate?
Our new base case is 3.0% CPI inflation and it is only rising as the war’s timeline is extended…
Our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another ~7 weeks, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.7%.
Why It Could Get Worse
And might the outlook deteriorate even further? Continues The Kobeissi Letter:
- In another major escalation, we may lose another ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply.
- A key advisor to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is now threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden…
- On top of the ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply flowing through this Strait, ~22% of global seaborne container trade travels through Bab al-Mandab each year.
- Between the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, we could see as much as 25 million barrels in daily oil supply offline…
- Oil prices are setting up for $120+/barrel.
Meantime, President Trump is exhibiting extraordinary clemency towards Iran.
Trump Extends the Deadline AGAIN
The president had previously demanded that Iran unseal the Hormuz Strait by 10:05 this morning (Eastern Time) — else take the consequences.
Yet the president has kindly and graciously extended the fatal hour to tomorrow evening at 8:00.
Why? The president evidently believes he may “get a deal with Iran” sometime today.
He pledges to “reign hell” upon Iran should it flout him once again.
Will an eleventh-hour deal be announced?
I am hagridden by severe and gnawing doubt.
I do not believe the two combatants are within miles of each other… or that today they will close the gap to inches, feet, yards or even fractions of miles.
Iran will maintain its chokehold upon the Hormuz Strait. That is because the critical waterway represents Iran’s maximum leverage point.
And it will not relax its hold upon it. Not, at least, for the future that is foreseeable.
Thus I expect the president will “reign hell” upon the Iranians as threatened.
Getting Ready to Reign Down Hell
My agents inform me that scores of American transport aircraft went winging into the region this weekend.
I am further informed that these aircraft were likely restocking the depleted cupboards.
That is, they were likely hauling advanced aerial munitions — the identical advanced aerial munitions the United States has heavily depleted since the conflict commenced.
These are being readied for immediate service.
And so the president has announced a new Iranian holiday of sorts… though I hazard it is a holiday few Iranians will hold to their bosoms.
You are familiar with days of such high ecstasy, of such high razzle-dazzle, that they are likened to Christmas and New Years combined.
Well friends, yesterday… on the holy day of Easter Sunday… the president declared that Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day combined:
- Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!!
“Open the F*****’ Strait, You Crazy Bastards”
“Open the F*****’ Strait, you crazy bastards,” continued the president, “or you’ll be living in HELL — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.
Would Allah countenance the pending wrecking of Iranian power plants and bridges?
I am not half so convinced that he would. Yet I concede, freely, that I speculate.
Allah’s ways are beyond my slender comprehension.
Meantime, would Allah countenance the wrecking of Iran’s energy facilities?
Israeli authorities — I must conclude — believe that he would.
Or, if not Allah, then they believe Yahweh would countenance the wrecking of Iran’s energy facilities.
Reuters reports that the Israeli government intends to massively assault Iran’s energy facilities this week.
It awaits merely the United States government’s “green light.”
I hazard it is a light the United States government will switch to the “on” position.
I hazard further that Iran would respond with a green light of its own. That is, Iran would likely escalate, fantastically, its assaults upon the region’s energy facilities.
What if It Doesn’t Work?
Here is a question:
What if the United States and its Israeli co-combatant “reign hell” upon Iran’s power plants, bridges and energy facilities… yet Iran refuses to release its chokehold on the Hormuz Strait?
Does the United States and Israel reign down continued hell?
Perhaps the answer is yes. Yet hell — in this particular instance at least— confronts logistical constraints.
That is, the United States and Israel do not command infinite quantities of hell-reigning ammunition.
For instance, Bloomberg reports that:
- The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions…
- After the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe… Another 75 or so are “unserviceable” because of damage or technical faults… about two-thirds of US stockpiles have been committed to the Iran war…
Hope Is Not a Strategy
Assume the looming hellish reign fails to open the Hormuz Strait to general traffic. Would the president subsequently order direct military action to open Hormuz to general traffic?
I hazard he may be left no option — if, that is — the looming hell-reign fails to work its intended effect.
Yet direct military action would prove time-devouring work. It would also, likely, prove costly work.
Many, many Americans may shoulder their ultimate cost.
Are the American people prepared to assume the costly burden?
I am not convinced they are. In fact, I hazard they are not.
Thus I hope against hope that Iran sinks to its knees under hell’s reign… and relaxes its Hormuz chokehold.
The upward-sloping escalation ladder may then assume a downward momentum.
That is certainly the hope of President Trump.
Yet as is argued wide and often… and despite my hopes and the president’s hopes… hope is not strategy.
Only strategy is strategy.
Brian Maher
for Freedom Financial News
